CFIB: small-business confidence crashes below 50

Canadian small-business optimism collapsed in September. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s 12-month Business Barometer plunged 10 points to 47.9, and the three-month index fell 10 points to 43.3 — both below the 50 line that separates net optimism from net pessimism.

CFIB says insufficient demand is the top growth constraint (49% of firms), while fuel costs lead the cost squeeze (62%), with product inputs and raw materials also biting hard. Average planned price increases jumped to 3.3%; planned wage hikes held at 2.4%. Full-time staffing stayed soft: 16% plan layoffs versus 13% planning to hire. The balance on current business health slipped to +15.

Exporters (38.6) and importers (43.5) look even weaker than the all-firm average. Agriculture remains the softest sector at 37.8 on the long-term index. The survey drew 581 owner responses between Sept. 10 and 16.

Tariff uncertainty and rising energy costs are weighing on Main Street just as retail sales softened. That cost-push-plus-demand-soft mix is why SME planned price hikes jumped even while confidence crashed — sticky shop-floor inflation with less willingness to invest or hire.