Canada's population growth hits 80-year low

Canada's population grew at its slowest pace in eight decades last year, as Ottawa's clampdown on temporary residents finally shows up in the national headcount.

Statistics Canada estimates the country added 189,425 people from July 1, 2025, to July 1, 2026 — a 0.5% rise to about 41.8 million. That is the smallest July-to-July gain since 1944–45 and the weakest percentage increase since 1915–16. Growth in the second quarter alone was just 80,343 (+0.2%), the softest Q2 since the pandemic border freeze in 2020. StatCan says the swings since 2020 are almost entirely international migration.

Non-permanent residents fell by 154,614 over the year to 2.78 million, or 6.7% of the population — the largest annual drop since comparable records began in 1971–72. Study-permit holders accounted for most of the retreat (-140,827), with work-and-study holders down 81,163. Permanent immigration also slipped to 368,224, the first year below 400,000 since 2021–22 and the fourth straight annual decline under lower IRCC targets.

The age mix is turning older again. Median age hit 40.9 and average age 42.1 as the twenties cohort shrank by nearly 155,000 (-2.8%), tracking the student-permit pullback. Seniors 65+ now make up 20.0% of the population, up 0.6 points year over year. Alberta still led the provinces at +1.5%; Ontario, Quebec and B.C. all grew slower than the national pace.

For inflation and housing, the demand shock that juiced rents and shelter costs in 2022–24 is cooling — but so is the labour-force and consumer-base expansion that propped short-term potential growth. Soft population prints do not erase sticky shelter inflation overnight; they do remove a key upside risk to both.